Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44cdab5eca632068970342de9fd5ec6eba14404886e0027f776932c9f933a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed No | 26c | 2,030$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 13c | 820.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 10c | 758.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 14c | 754$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed No | 11c | 728.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 14c | 519$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed No | 11c | 168.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 148.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 11c | 94.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Yes | 58c | 85.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…edfbbacked No | 14c | 73.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.