Earnings · resolved market
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688da28c436f9f49ee08df3afbe1d0de138de7a828478cf50eb9cc013766bdb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1219…e791backed Yes | 73c | 2,841$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 43c | 2,383$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.71 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…eb90backed Yes | 62c | 1,159$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 26c | 1,034$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.42 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 58c | 1,026$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.89 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 63c | 700$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.71 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 31c | 469.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 25c | 407.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 351$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 36c | 252.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 46c | 247.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.07 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 38c | 203.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 46c | 197.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 42c | 179.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…01aabacked No | 17c | 177.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 28c | 172.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 61c | 152.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 122.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 34c | 116.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 62c | 100.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…68e7backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…350ebacked No | 28c | 96.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…50c7backed No | 51c | 77.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 35c | 70.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked Yes | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 39c | 57.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 70c | 43.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 52c | 38.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed No | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…05f4backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a3…07a0backed Yes | 62c | 28.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 36c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 70c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed No | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 75c | 21.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8472backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 70c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed Yes | 74c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.