Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6df4ae24d5557e6a390bdd8189f0fc45057756b6b1acb4b5e44fe4b8402203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 59c | 1,998$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.83 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 43c | 1,188$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.47 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 49c | 673$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.47 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 35c | 625$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 57c | 365.93$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.61 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 62c | 347.9$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.45 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 323.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…e3f8backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 37c | 299.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…d2a3backed Yes | 14c | 249.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 62c | 116.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b6…fa87backed Yes | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 47c | 89.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 53c | 59.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 64c | 48.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 48.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Yes | 61c | 40.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 41c | 38.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 62c | 38.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 54c | 38.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed No | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 57c | 32.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 27.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4809…f6dfbacked No | 61c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of March?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of March?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of March?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.