Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9fb5ccdddd8ae200e84c114145f614a2be0fb853f53708f5eaac74e32039f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,060$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 29c | 1,000$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.5 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 66c | 835.73$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.76 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 31c | 620$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.53 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 78c | 463.06$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed No | 43c | 459.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…455abacked Yes | 19c | 350.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 66c | 314.11$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.61 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 35c | 272.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 71c | 267.72$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 19c | 225$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 72c | 206.72$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 9c | 198.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…51ddbacked Yes | 57c | 176.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 11c | 131.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…04cdbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 55.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 28c | 54.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 43c | 33.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 48c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c503backed Yes | 62c | 21.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…e2d7backed Yes | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of March?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of March?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of March?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of March?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of March?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.