Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation be between 2.3% and 2.5% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcefccdef775bc86c7e4b83191b3d47e2bf21cddcc4d7941d1fcdfc2bf2eedf08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 6c | 1,681$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 59c | 1,183$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.89 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…d64ebacked Yes | 2c | 854.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…ffaabacked Yes | 12c | 439.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 62c | 430.98$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 45c | 275.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…4b6abacked Yes | 58c | 260.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…ca52backed Yes | 12c | 244.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 7c | 240.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 198.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…5288backed Yes | 51c | 196.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…8ef4backed Yes | 60c | 165.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…6b9cbacked Yes | 60c | 150.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…90fcbacked No | 39c | 150.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…13b6backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 121.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5a11backed Yes | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…5a40backed Yes | 20c | 97.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 42c | 90.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…d6a6backed Yes | 34c | 87.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 84.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…1c1cbacked No | 41c | 80.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 77.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…1244backed Yes | 40c | 74.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5434…362bbacked Yes | 69c | 64.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 51c | 58.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 39c | 53.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 58c | 52.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 48.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 48.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…5151backed Yes | 42c | 44.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…6b54backed Yes | 30c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…45b9backed Yes | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 55c | 36.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fc…e300backed Yes | 50c | 36.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 43c | 33.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5100…7c4ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 42c | 24.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Yes | 62c | 21.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…f8e1backed Yes | 63c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.3% and 2.5% in January?this page
- Will monthly inflation be 3.2% or higher in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.7% and 1.9% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.0% and 2.2% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.6% and 2.8% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.9% and 3.1% in January?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation be lower than 1.7% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.