Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation be between 2.6% and 2.8% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf153fe9e1fba2a7502f6e7269594a02413068fcaaddb17c77fa81972345f008e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 37c | 1,926$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.89 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2d41backed Yes | 55c | 1,485$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 26c | 1,150$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.09 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 23c | 924.72$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…5fe1backed Yes | 78c | 757.17$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked Yes | 4c | 711.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 362.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…4e2ebacked Yes | 52c | 300$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…b8cebacked No | 26c | 250.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…df7dbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 239.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 200.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 36c | 186.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 44c | 171.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 135.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…1247backed Yes | 58c | 129.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…4b6abacked No | 74c | 114.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 52c | 106.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 104.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…274fbacked Yes | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 95.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…ca52backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…8ef4backed No | 76c | 87.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…6e2ebacked Yes | 61c | 86.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…5a40backed Yes | 48c | 83.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…614fbacked No | 58c | 80.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…f8e1backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…209cbacked Yes | 38c | 79.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 38c | 78.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa335…af0dbacked Yes | 43c | 76.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…6b54backed Yes | 22c | 70.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5434…362bbacked Yes | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…ece1backed Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 64.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…4bb3backed Yes | 50c | 63.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…2108backed Yes | 35c | 62.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…6dd8backed Yes | 44c | 61.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…eb9fbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…13b6backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd30e…1a5dbacked Yes | 38c | 55.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +317.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…d53abacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…45b9backed Yes | 38c | 52.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Yes | 80c | 50.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 46.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…a9e7backed No | 64c | 44.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…6f40backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…cc32backed Yes | 77c | 32.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 61c | 32.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…d64ebacked Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…dcc1backed No | 63c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.6% and 2.8% in January?this page
- Will monthly inflation be 3.2% or higher in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.7% and 1.9% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.0% and 2.2% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.3% and 2.5% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.9% and 3.1% in January?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation be lower than 1.7% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.