Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation be between 2.9% and 3.1% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28be4d45867524f167bdc51a9541f6d3e46b594c3d30cd60f0249efae981f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7646…f8e1backed Yes | 41c | 989.96$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…920fbacked Yes | 9c | 773.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +337.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 522.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.14 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5434…362bbacked Yes | 14c | 463.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…b8cebacked Yes | 55c | 426.17$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 3c | 374.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 10c | 351.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Yes | 63c | 295.43$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…614fbacked Yes | 60c | 252.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 79c | 224.78$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 38c | 204.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 9c | 201.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…13b6backed No | 51c | 186.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 16c | 182.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +512.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 179.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…ca12backed Yes | 13c | 170.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 13cpaid | +700%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 8c | 147.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 47c | 128.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…e58abacked Yes | 13c | 124.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 120.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 26c | 109.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…8b8cbacked Yes | 11c | 106.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +785.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 12c | 90.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…fb53backed Yes | 29c | 69.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…4e2ebacked Yes | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed No | 49c | 50.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 34c | 46.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…174dbacked Yes | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…df7dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…6457backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…6dd8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…4bb3backed Yes | 74c | 29.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.9% and 3.1% in January?this page
- Will monthly inflation be 3.2% or higher in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.7% and 1.9% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.0% and 2.2% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.3% and 2.5% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.6% and 2.8% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation be lower than 1.7% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.