Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb91d948b34fca6a1f09c3f1573c1829e21e35fd466460111929cdeb915ab64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,512$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.54 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 23c | 2,056$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.16 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 28c | 2,003$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.25 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 39c | 1,712$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.73 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 1,600$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 31c | 1,582$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.99 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 26c | 1,284$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.51 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,256$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.76 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 55c | 1,178$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.92 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 10c | 829.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 71c | 815.68$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 74c | 769.64$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 51c | 769$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.07 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 35c | 707.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 693.57$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.48 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 66c | 620.98$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.13 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 49c | 590.61$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed No | 15c | 514.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed No | 6c | 423.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes | 72c | 415.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 70c | 403$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 27c | 400.83$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…d7bcbacked No | 4c | 395.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…e43cbacked Yes | 50c | 383.14$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 365$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 19c | 349.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed No | 23c | 290.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 288.55$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 285.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 18c | 283.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 76c | 279.13$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 74c | 273.89$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 61c | 273.42$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 21c | 264.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 263.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…475cbacked No | 15c | 258.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 18c | 244.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…cd76backed No | 15c | 235$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 16c | 216.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed No | 23c | 200.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8622…cdc9backed No | 59c | 198$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 194.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 45c | 179.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11b1…6827backed No | 24c | 176$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e32…e723backed Yes | 76c | 172$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 56c | 168.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 25c | 168$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 51c | 147.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 58c | 144.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…cba5backed No | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…3754backed No | 25c | 137.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…99e4backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 58c | 127.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 42c | 123$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…8e9abacked No | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 75c | 117.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 14c | 111.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…dbabbacked No | 23c | 108.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…8181backed Yes | 78c | 108.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483b…8911backed Yes | 77c | 107.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…fce4backed Yes | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…1f86backed No | 20c | 104.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 57c | 104$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…6380backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e200backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 66c | 89.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…71cdbacked Yes | 47c | 86.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…073abacked Yes | 76c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 23c | 83.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 14c | 80.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 53c | 75.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…ab91backed No | 20c | 70.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 72c | 65.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 30c | 55.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed No | 21c | 54.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa669…2c3cbacked Yes | 51c | 52.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 52.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 72c | 50.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…1fa0backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…e153backed Yes | 55c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 68c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…eef8backed No | 56c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.