Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f38d87f12c7e2b49239ed42e5145a578d644a55125e4c96d9b13aa9ef0e3ed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 77c | 799.99$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 20c | 641.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 3c | 612$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 2c | 576.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 12c | 512.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 272.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…0fd6backed Yes | 10c | 248$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 10c | 229$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 12c | 217.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 6c | 208.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…6493backed Yes | 5c | 208.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 7c | 136.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 62c | 125$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 10c | 107.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 61.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of January?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.