Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfacdfaac681b92bfa4eb33f47eb3d93461009b6e1a0a80dd3269046d54521121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd568…c2ecbacked Yes | 20c | 2,440$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 80c | 1,768$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.37 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 1,632$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.35 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 21c | 1,250$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.89 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…4986backed Yes | 11c | 1,074$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 922.13$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.53 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 11c | 914.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 16c | 773.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 20c | 650.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…8e9abacked Yes | 20c | 616.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 41c | 495$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 21c | 490$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 489.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 9c | 369$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 76c | 339.75$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa669…2c3cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 247.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 10c | 242$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 10c | 205.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…c8d2backed Yes | 12c | 193.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 27c | 182.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…0345backed Yes | 19c | 168.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31f…8115backed Yes | 14c | 150.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 80c | 150.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d1a6backed No | 80c | 146$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 141.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 11c | 136.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 11c | 129.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 24c | 122$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 120.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…c847backed Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 15c | 104.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 19c | 103.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…b604backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 16c | 71.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 80c | 70.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 69.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…cba8backed Yes | 44c | 56.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of January?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.