Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad36c91036ec7c2a18be916f95a5db5c696c28b45276b1e111010517493dafc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 22c | 6,868$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 12c | 4,864$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.66 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…f32bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,817$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,445$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 31c | 2,438$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.54 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 69c | 2,422$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.3 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…fbe3backed Yes | 78c | 1,983$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…c928backed No | 52c | 1,095$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…70f6backed Yes | 41c | 959.87$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 11c | 934.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 51c | 921.89$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.63 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 68c | 900$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…226cbacked Yes | 23c | 856.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 22c | 830.11$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…ebcabacked No | 53c | 810$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…7c6cbacked Yes | 38c | 780$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 55c | 761.84$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.54 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 32c | 694.04$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.62 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 48c | 673.03$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.85 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 64c | 649.56$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…be3fbacked Yes | 49c | 627.91$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…4e29backed No | 24c | 548.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +321.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 27c | 536.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…dd2cbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed No | 53c | 495.44$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3934…8352backed Yes | 41c | 478.52$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed No | 56c | 463.6$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 41c | 461.89$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.91 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed Yes | 20c | 446$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 430$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 9c | 430$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 56c | 396.95$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 33c | 387.66$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 65c | 370$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 46c | 363.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.31 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 359.93$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…2aefbacked Yes | 58c | 356$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 41c | 320$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 301.85$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…db02backed No | 29c | 301$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 24c | 299$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…3572backed Yes | 25c | 296$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 56c | 290$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…c760backed No | 63c | 276$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 73c | 264.91$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 25c | 251$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…c1d7backed No | 66c | 231.73$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 212.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…8beebacked Yes | 49c | 205.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…5e66backed Yes | 38c | 191.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 18c | 180$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…a607backed Yes | 34c | 177.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…f159backed No | 48c | 176$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 10c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 164.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…29f2backed Yes | 42c | 162.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 154.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…97a4backed No | 17c | 148.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +182.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f61…8e4fbacked Yes | 21c | 146$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…4fbdbacked Yes | 57c | 132.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…5c05backed No | 52c | 132$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed No | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…abaebacked Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 52c | 128.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…0f33backed Yes | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…e9adbacked No | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…6380backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 109.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 47c | 109.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 79c | 109.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 107.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Yes | 13c | 105.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9111…7ecabacked Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…4c61backed No | 50c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…0056backed Yes | 50c | 101.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…b529backed Yes | 44c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5c…60b3backed No | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 51c | 100.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67a…960ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…3a15backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…b2f8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…aa9cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…25d8backed No | 24c | 99.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…bfc0backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…1ac1backed No | 58c | 98.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 43c | 94.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed No | 34c | 88.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…fbc9backed Yes | 44c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…c78ebacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.