AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6046b8a6cce41ccf2297c0ab511ec3c8ed9cc6ebb5a53e8d0eb887cfb59238ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 67c | 2,159$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.43 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 23c | 1,903$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.7 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 63c | 1,348$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.63 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 72c | 928$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 28c | 899$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 884$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 25c | 807$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 38c | 650$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 75c | 599$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 35c | 579.06$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 76c | 422.47$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 17c | 416$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked Yes | 13c | 384$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 13c | 380$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 80c | 303$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 80c | 299$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 80c | 282$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 74c | 207.68$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 164.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 66c | 158.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 52c | 155.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 146.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb103…1745backed Yes | 71c | 140.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 30c | 130.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 75c | 129$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…5c17backed No | 79c | 126.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 111.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 60c | 99.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 90.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 84.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 47c | 80.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…1a5fbacked Yes | 44c | 79.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…7e80backed Yes | 29c | 71.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 22c | 67.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…8defbacked No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 48.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…4348backed Yes | 28c | 44.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 52c | 38.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 32c | 33.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 43c | 30.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 77c | 25.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 63c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…3cbfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 19.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 66c | 15.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.