Music · resolved market
Will Alexander Rybak win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395c0c7e77996995876996f303631c795d961752e1ebf04be5581bbf2334529a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,022$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 825.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 51c | 726$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 52c | 723$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 55c | 723$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 49c | 691$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 66c | 472$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 68c | 464$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 34c | 456$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…2d97backed Yes | 4c | 444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 42c | 425$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 58c | 425$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 66c | 411$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 45c | 398$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 44c | 395.07$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 34c | 375$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 32c | 351$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 28c | 332.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 45c | 325$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 45c | 278$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 48c | 268.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 52c | 221$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…bf08backed No | 45c | 196.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Yes | 26c | 192.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 55c | 189$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 68c | 178$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 32c | 178$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 34c | 129$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…cfadbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 55c | 89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 65c | 83.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…5c81backed Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +76%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 54c | 37.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 33c | 30.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…02c4backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alexander Rybak win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?this page
- Will Emma win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Hedda Mae win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Jonas Lovv win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?Yes won
- Will Leonardo Amor win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Mileo win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Silke win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.