Music · resolved market
Will Emma win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e59c15de39fcb91c8083d238c1828101d03f2445b3ba23722b0e5c194fbf3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,235$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,095$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,004$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 75c | 994$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 25c | 793$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 74c | 745$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 26c | 601$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 70c | 532$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 70c | 457$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 17c | 366$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 70c | 360$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 30c | 345$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 75c | 324$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 75c | 317$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed No | 75c | 281$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 25c | 235$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed No | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 25c | 171.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 70c | 155.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 75c | 155$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…02c4backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 109.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 75c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 78.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…0f06backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d0…ffdebacked Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…06fcbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…69b3backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed No | 70c | 47.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cf…f27dbacked No | 66c | 42.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed No | 49c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…a79fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742a…fa07backed Yes | 49c | 24.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0f…b9acbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Emma win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?this page
- Will Alexander Rybak win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Hedda Mae win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Jonas Lovv win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?Yes won
- Will Leonardo Amor win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Mileo win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
- Will Silke win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.