Earnings · resolved market
Will Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa26084830c4946cbda7f23544fbd690589839d8307e33525c72774b6d68c4d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 59c | 660.54$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.62 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 51c | 583.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.62 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…d18ebacked Yes | 38c | 497.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 46c | 452.09$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked No | 80c | 435.68$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 64c | 378.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 39c | 340$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 44c | 332.93$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed Yes | 20c | 260.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.45 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 61c | 260$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 199.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 140.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…acdcbacked Yes | 59c | 137$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 119.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…9297backed No | 73c | 114$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 114$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6c20backed Yes | 40c | 92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 57c | 87.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 53c | 87.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 42c | 83.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 81.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 67c | 75.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 71.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 60.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 53c | 32.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 57c | 31.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 30.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…a165backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…a251backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 29.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 36c | 28.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…a62ebacked No | 45c | 27.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…d087backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…dcd0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f29…7a54backed No | 78c | 14.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.