Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c6d1ba0266516a9ee5c8f311fed9e8c68cad83c30b5812be792be024cb1f821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 72c | 15,939$11,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,510.62 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 10,045$4,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,527.14 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 61c | 10,000$6,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,132.41 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…241ebacked No | 69c | 7,740$5,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 6,197$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.38 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…f9c6backed Yes | 2c | 6,090$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +241.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 1c | 4,407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,404$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…89e7backed Yes | 0c | 3,380$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,832$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +4,034.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…019ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,802$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.29per pick | 12cpaid | +234%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…4fffbacked Yes | 3c | 2,168$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,983$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd648…2badbacked Yes | 1c | 1,960$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…7135backed Yes | 9c | 1,520$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…1395backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +332.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 36c | 1,137$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.81 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,084$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 45c | 785.91$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.93 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 2c | 647.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 7c | 642.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 61c | 610$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.2 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 609.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 48c | 580$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…6eb4backed No | 62c | 562.15$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…24ffbacked Yes | 3c | 540.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 369.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 58c | 349.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…a8e0backed Yes | 55c | 340$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed No | 45c | 340$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…d43fbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 42c | 228.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 54c | 195.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…3d33backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 163.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d199backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c42…6848backed No | 46c | 143.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…3a4ebacked Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 44c | 112.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 37c | 101.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Yes | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8559…8561backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083b…609ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 75c | 82.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…9119backed Yes | 37c | 76.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebbd…05b4backed Yes | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…6276backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…1a09backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc573…cdacbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdc…d960backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…1f74backed No | 46c | 24.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa190…c7b0backed No | 54c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.