Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdfd3f02842fc083699ca7486ea0dd070c70a0177f37caf4d364a63812ae46b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 33c | 10,796$3,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,212.89 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…d480backed Yes | 10c | 7,060$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,363.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +338.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 58c | 4,262$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.67 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 66c | 2,996$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.21 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…1f77backed Yes | 20c | 1,249$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 9c | 1,060$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 860.78$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.72 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 12c | 741.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.3 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes | 33c | 699.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 72c | 468.96$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.88 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 53c | 400$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.18 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 50c | 398.43$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 344$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.5 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 339.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…e287backed Yes | 16c | 314.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +214.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 34c | 292.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 66c | 242.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f4…3eedbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…403abacked No | 45c | 53.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 71c | 48.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…51b5backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 26-1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.