Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcad721bd31e84b91897bcba70b0bac3925681937ef42f4b67e465a15da335a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b92…e122backed No | 0c | 124,107$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 71c | 11,784$8,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 32c | 7,811$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.53 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…a930backed No | 37c | 4,741$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 71c | 3,038$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.28 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…bc7dbacked No | 35c | 2,857$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 65c | 2,797$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.95 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.4 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 899.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 63c | 529.79$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.54 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 30c | 478.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 355.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…241ebacked No | 43c | 300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 21c | 214.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 65c | 192.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 124.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 67c | 118.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…1f74backed No | 40c | 43.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…e36cbacked No | 34c | 35.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Yes | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.