Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f3e317bc0cd83543623145b3295a06a601cb17a5cbe0c215f8a840cb2ae89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 5c | 14,805$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,121.28 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 66c | 10,456$6,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,903.09 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 7c | 9,048$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,453.51 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 57c | 2,729$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.95 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…29cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,714$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,159$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.03 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…019ebacked Yes | 17c | 878.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.29per pick | 12cpaid | +234%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 806.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.3 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 13c | 774.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 77c | 739.67$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.9 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 683.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 6c | 608.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.73 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 11c | 519.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 4c | 481.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 370$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.5 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 337.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.05 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 308.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.08 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…fddebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 9cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 269.94$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.49 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…f266backed Yes | 10c | 255.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.1 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 69c | 238.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 193.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 10c | 183.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 106.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 46.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.