Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd4941db58ed65cb3e6ba26982324e0b58f233ae49602aea226291981b7f22e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 71c | 35,999$25,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,693.74 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 3c | 26,968$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,221.91 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed No | 1c | 15,255$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 39c | 11,039$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,718.39 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…24fabacked No | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…4719backed No | 1c | 9,788$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…3ad9backed No | 1c | 8,316$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 1c | 8,121$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,011.18 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Yes | 5c | 5,767$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…b9a5backed No | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7ff1backed Yes | 6c | 3,806$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,597.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +1,335.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,686$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.73 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 3c | 3,254$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.23 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.4 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…805dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 3cpaid | +2,246.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…aeafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,974$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,401%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,909$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…7bdabacked Yes | 5c | 962.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,488.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…7fcdbacked Yes | 2c | 812.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +529.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…6361backed Yes | 11c | 750$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…14f4backed Yes | 4c | 697.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 595.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.85 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 555.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.26 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 4c | 507.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…019ebacked Yes | 5c | 404.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.29per pick | 12cpaid | +234%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 3c | 365.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.55 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 36c | 159.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 19c | 88.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 57c | 84.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…6965backed No | 25c | 79.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 61.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 26-1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.