Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dbe537dcac7710bbcaf5dd5af7d44aaea05e245fdf3220fc43de4729970ab93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $417,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02bf…e70dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,282$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…9261backed Yes | 10c | 22,709$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +651.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked Yes | 0c | 18,770$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…18b7backed Yes | 1c | 11,118$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 50c | 11,096$5,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,584.88 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 0c | 8,561$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…4895backed Yes | 67c | 7,943$5,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,296.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 7,558$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…8e68backed No | 13c | 7,267$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +653%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed No | 18c | 6,442$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,261.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +399.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…ec71backed Yes | 0c | 5,897$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 2c | 5,695$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 1c | 5,586$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…5beabacked Yes | 2c | 4,830$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f33…9eebbacked Yes | 4c | 3,946$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 37c | 3,403$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.77 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 10c | 3,298$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.06 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes | 63c | 3,166$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.81 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 3,050$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.23 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,834$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 15c | 2,465$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.44 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…31c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,455$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 38c | 2,418$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.07 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 2,273$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.03 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 2,047$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.02 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…0850backed Yes | 3c | 1,944$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 60c | 1,918$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.05 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…6479backed Yes | 1c | 1,901$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 20c | 1,855$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 75c | 1,853$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…cc4cbacked No | 8c | 1,799$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +351.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…9869backed Yes | 39c | 1,790$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 67c | 1,749$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.72 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked No | 45c | 1,735$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.44 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…09d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,712$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…c308backed Yes | 62c | 1,633$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…2f82backed Yes | 2c | 1,622$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2eeabacked Yes | 16c | 1,523$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked Yes | 15c | 1,508$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 68c | 1,485$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,440$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…b9a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,363$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,360$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed No | 41c | 1,336$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ad…77cdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,310$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 64c | 1,294$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,219$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 64c | 1,214$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,208$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.95 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 8c | 1,186$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,152$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 12c | 1,115$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 3c | 1,110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 22c | 1,107$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.06 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,097$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 69c | 1,036$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ae…e881backed Yes | 65c | 1,020$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…0778backed Yes | 74c | 1,012$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…5099backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…9cd0backed Yes | 18c | 943.81$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 941.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…3fefbacked No | 7c | 925.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 17c | 876.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 53c | 855.58$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.06 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 74c | 848.01$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked No | 7c | 838.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.37 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…2b66backed Yes | 35c | 834.4$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 2c | 807.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…20d4backed Yes | 35c | 800.56$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 46c | 774.37$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…ac03backed Yes | 59c | 773.15$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cb…e3a4backed Yes | 1c | 763.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…568ebacked Yes | 2c | 747.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 70c | 745.75$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.2 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes | 39c | 744.35$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 64c | 743.41$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 19c | 719.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.9 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 11c | 717.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…e564backed Yes | 47c | 715$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed No | 49c | 710.53$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…a3ecbacked Yes | 70c | 705.24$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…a385backed Yes | 60c | 703.26$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…682fbacked Yes | 57c | 681.56$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 664.77$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.71 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf58…9c69backed Yes | 4c | 650.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 76c | 610.87$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +186%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7565…950cbacked Yes | 51c | 598.69$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 597.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 57c | 588.5$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 23c | 575.76$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 2c | 570$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 538.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.54 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 62c | 528.49$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.83 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 71c | 521.73$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.99 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked Yes | 67c | 509.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 46c | 507.24$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.19 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 72c | 498.14$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 40c | 498$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…d5e4backed No | 25c | 493.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.