Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e46060bab5fb65fd385cd7806c645057d3b001f4bac3fe79f9106699dab8074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 13,531$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.15 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 1c | 11,195$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 1c | 10,105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 2c | 9,639$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 9,026$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.62 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…ac96backed Yes | 1c | 8,926$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 6c | 8,264$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.33 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…bd8cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,930$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 1c | 7,002$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 5c | 5,349$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56e…2c85backed Yes | 2c | 5,260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 5,035$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked Yes | 2c | 4,871$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…c6bcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,784$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed Yes | 4c | 4,543$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 7c | 4,365$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.49 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…0778backed Yes | 2c | 3,188$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 7c | 3,166$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…850abacked Yes | 2c | 3,040$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,754$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,704$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,572$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 5c | 2,524$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d67…4d3ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,216$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 2,076$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,007$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,762$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,660$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 9c | 1,548$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 3c | 1,526$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 18c | 1,523$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,509$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 2c | 1,422$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…990dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,382$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…31c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,329$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 5c | 1,294$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…b320backed Yes | 3c | 1,267$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,244$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…3b30backed Yes | 1c | 1,224$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…7fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e99…a10cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 4c | 1,190$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,029$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…0850backed Yes | 4c | 1,023$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…3df5backed Yes | 5c | 967.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…9cd0backed Yes | 36c | 961.58$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…54b4backed Yes | 2c | 961.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 21c | 959.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…6d07backed Yes | 2c | 951.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 3c | 935$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 15c | 893.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 11c | 876.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 855.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3632backed Yes | 3c | 811.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 773.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 2c | 763.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +764.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 751.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…97fabacked Yes | 16c | 749.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 22c | 726.18$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 29c | 700.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…8624backed Yes | 2c | 700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 11c | 671$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 20c | 666.82$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ae…e881backed Yes | 3c | 666.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 648.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 626.78$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 2c | 625.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…d882backed Yes | 2c | 615.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 21c | 605.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 5c | 603.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed Yes | 7c | 594.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ad…77cdbacked Yes | 9c | 582$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4763backed Yes | 17c | 572.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 571.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 12c | 571.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +267.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 4c | 570.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe58e…afc3backed Yes | 18c | 570.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…5beabacked Yes | 7c | 569.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 19c | 568.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…8163backed Yes | 2c | 551.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 49c | 549$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 15c | 537.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…5696backed Yes | 3c | 532.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 74c | 528.3$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 5c | 506.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…94e3backed Yes | 9c | 506.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…74efbacked Yes | 21c | 506.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 10c | 506.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 20c | 498$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…c308backed Yes | 31c | 492.13$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…17b6backed Yes | 8c | 475.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +699.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.