Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0d0dcf5dec4750b65e9513de6ddf926903c499d1d4552f00a28f63fbbaabf4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 16,505$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,368.08 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 4c | 5,030$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,839.19 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 1c | 5,028$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,978.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +3,252.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 4,670$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,168.38 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 78c | 4,071$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.72 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes | 2c | 3,975$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 10cpaid | +485.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 3,799$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.18 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed Yes | 8c | 3,730$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 37c | 3,501$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.39 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 72c | 3,241$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 20c | 3,180$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed No | 3c | 3,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 10c | 3,040$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,745.93 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,875$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,781$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4a…dd0bbacked No | 2c | 2,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 8c | 2,249$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,076.48 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,199$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.66 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 6c | 2,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…b209backed Yes | 4c | 1,997$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,968$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.05 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,915$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 1,853$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.96 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 7c | 1,828$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +254.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Yes | 7c | 1,531$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 5c | 1,520$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 1,429$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.66 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 1,412$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.07 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 23c | 1,357$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 3c | 1,341$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +764.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 15c | 1,241$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.93 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,203$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.47 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed No | 4c | 1,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,197$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.68 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5853…144dbacked No | 1c | 1,141$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 73c | 1,118$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.83 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…97fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,073$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 1,045$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.21 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 9c | 1,006$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +323%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 15c | 974.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.61 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf7…01c0backed Yes | 35c | 973.61$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +134%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b0…4dffbacked Yes | 3c | 937.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,546.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d67…4d3ebacked Yes | 8c | 930.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…92e7backed Yes | 2c | 904.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +2,097.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 19c | 896.52$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 855.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.05 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…fcedbacked No | 5c | 806.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…17b6backed Yes | 6c | 799.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +699.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…0850backed No | 5c | 747.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…7f67backed Yes | 26c | 742.04$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +290%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 5c | 737$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 5c | 730$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.23 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 71c | 701.51$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.34 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…9cd0backed Yes | 36c | 700.88$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked No | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 17c | 649.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.64 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…789dbacked Yes | 20c | 634$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…31c3backed No | 3c | 626.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 14c | 618.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.22 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 5c | 597.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 557.49$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.47 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked No | 5c | 507.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +941.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.83 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 16c | 498$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…b571backed Yes | 4c | 481.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +1,182.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 16c | 432$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 4c | 428$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.89 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 18c | 410.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes | 10c | 409.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +270.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7519…8b5cbacked Yes | 31c | 406$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fa…9a0dbacked Yes | 5c | 401.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +902.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +141%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…2883backed No | 3c | 398.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2eeabacked Yes | 23c | 391.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…20d4backed Yes | 30c | 385.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7713backed Yes | 34c | 382.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4763backed Yes | 3c | 379.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…3d85backed Yes | 32c | 374.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 26c | 372.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 19c | 340.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 339.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.47 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a13…f178backed Yes | 6c | 331.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +529.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…2768backed Yes | 7c | 320$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…be8cbacked Yes | 9c | 315.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 18c | 315.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.36 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 6c | 313.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +267.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 27c | 311.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 19c | 298.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…0e3abacked Yes | 11c | 287.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 286.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 70c | 286.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…7ce7backed Yes | 7c | 270.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.03 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed No | 5c | 267.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.