Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66b0df6f02fad9fd54f5e9bdffbd5b68e76c8580e13adfecd64063c0b271b17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2290…733abacked Yes | 0c | 17,022$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 0c | 11,305$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,166$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 1c | 7,178$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 4,338$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.08 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed Yes | 1c | 4,157$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8ab9backed Yes | 0c | 3,734$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 2,792$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 76c | 2,142$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.54 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 2,118$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed Yes | 25c | 1,869$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,714$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,615$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 1,031$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…af6dbacked Yes | 24c | 996.87$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…a5cbbacked Yes | 3c | 977$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…5e60backed Yes | 25c | 946.14$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 5c | 830$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 9c | 728.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 16c | 604.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 602.73$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…be8cbacked Yes | 11c | 449.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 16c | 448.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed No | 74c | 440.66$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 3c | 436.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…6722backed Yes | 26c | 430$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…2343backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 25c | 330.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf2…2433backed Yes | 15c | 317$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 25c | 300.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…10dcbacked Yes | 11c | 275.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 23c | 253.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 72c | 251.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 28c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 18c | 238.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…6f82backed Yes | 16c | 229.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +188.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 219.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 25c | 210.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…2985backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…bf1dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +402.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 160.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…265dbacked Yes | 8c | 154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…1163backed Yes | 19c | 144.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 19c | 143.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 23c | 142.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 10c | 139.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…fec5backed Yes | 24c | 135.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…eb15backed Yes | 16c | 128.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 12c | 127.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 10c | 126.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…29f2backed Yes | 15c | 125.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 119.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 13c | 97.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…a7edbacked Yes | 28c | 86.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…00f0backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…7485backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 29c | 74.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…8d5abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd5…7cf7backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…2060backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…32fdbacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…89ecbacked Yes | 26c | 53.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7fa4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…ebaabacked Yes | 24c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499d…65ecbacked Yes | 26c | 46.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…9254backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.