Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aec3ff42362af697347e8ec97ac13a3ae7feea3a8c11a91782d5cc02a60554d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 0c | 12,291$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 11,608$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 0c | 10,685$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 2c | 8,537$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,891$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 2c | 4,999$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes | 1c | 4,921$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 10cpaid | +485.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 1c | 3,448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 3,283$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 2c | 2,843$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,746$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 3c | 2,648$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,326$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 23c | 1,873$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.36 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed Yes | 2c | 1,821$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d67…4d3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,686$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,569$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,491$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 1,380$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,343$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,302$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,253$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 78c | 1,172$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.69 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 1c | 1,070$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +941.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 1,058$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.33 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…be8cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,030$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 73c | 906.15$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.69 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 77c | 859.79$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed Yes | 27c | 820.76$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 813.13$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 760.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 25c | 734.59$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.34 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 2c | 715.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…dfd3backed No | 74c | 699.01$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 26c | 565.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 19c | 560$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 7c | 550.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 25c | 545$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…a5cbbacked Yes | 7c | 531$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 19c | 510.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…30ddbacked Yes | 29c | 500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a2bdbacked Yes | 26c | 467.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…6722backed Yes | 27c | 426.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 26c | 421.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…1c97backed Yes | 32c | 339.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…2343backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 15c | 295.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 22c | 295.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 27c | 293.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked Yes | 28c | 281.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 279.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 16c | 251.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 17c | 243.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 240.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…fa88backed Yes | 27c | 235.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…2e8dbacked Yes | 20c | 206.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 13c | 202$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…6389backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…2985backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7c44backed Yes | 23c | 195.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 14c | 153.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 11c | 153.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 24c | 151.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…7485backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 147.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 74c | 143.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 131.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…3c0abacked Yes | 26c | 131$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7fa4backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 27c | 118.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…1478backed Yes | 30c | 114.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96aa…c7eebacked No | 70c | 111.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3d…1606backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 13c | 111.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…8961backed No | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…ddd5backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 104.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…7ce7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…32fdbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…00f0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 26c | 99.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 26c | 99.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e99…a10cbacked Yes | 27c | 98.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…a7edbacked Yes | 21c | 95.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes | 24c | 94.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 79c | 90.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe844…df88backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…b634backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…370dbacked Yes | 24c | 76.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…789dbacked Yes | 21c | 76.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…8b78backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…d54cbacked Yes | 21c | 71.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.