Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9340c6e7e3f9aaa54eb2961b47d1b5855fd2780b6362b2bb0b0d70dfea0cde6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96ef…bd8cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,641$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 1c | 8,541$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…7597backed Yes | 0c | 6,870$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 1c | 6,141$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,931$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 0c | 5,470$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…b209backed Yes | 2c | 5,344$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 5,245$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.72 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 1c | 4,289$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…3df5backed Yes | 0c | 3,817$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed Yes | 34c | 3,797$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 30c | 2,151$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 10c | 1,801$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 67c | 1,660$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.34 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 8c | 1,379$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,339$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 19c | 1,334$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 72c | 1,300$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 75c | 1,235$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 14c | 1,178$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…3544backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…61a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 16c | 945.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…85febacked Yes | 2c | 798.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 68c | 791.75$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 787.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 769.79$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.74 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 13c | 655.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 10c | 650$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 9c | 645.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…3ce8backed Yes | 2c | 633.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 76c | 480$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 31c | 478$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 7c | 470.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11b1…6827backed Yes | 10c | 464$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…be8cbacked Yes | 22c | 436.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…7c6cbacked Yes | 26c | 406.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…af6dbacked Yes | 22c | 356.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e200backed No | 64c | 310$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab25…5666backed Yes | 4c | 290$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 275.88$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…5a5cbacked Yes | 18c | 270.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 16c | 269.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed No | 75c | 262.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.40per pick | 45cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 36c | 260$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 8c | 256.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 7c | 251$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 247.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…c4eebacked Yes | 4c | 245.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 68c | 243.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 242.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…88d3backed No | 67c | 201.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8a53backed Yes | 19c | 196$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5301…db2cbacked Yes | 35c | 193.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 33c | 189.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…db02backed No | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 75c | 173.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +171%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee5…cb8cbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7b…2814backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 9c | 137.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2a…2606backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…de0abacked Yes | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…5c05backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 22c | 109.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 35c | 107.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 104.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 65c | 101.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…1fe9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d4…34e2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 18c | 97.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…d648backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…cb2dbacked Yes | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 75c | 57.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 74c | 53.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 52.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499d…65ecbacked Yes | 38c | 31.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed No | 79c | 27.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.