Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2420b5c5971cd2b749d68140ece0eaa2248fa37e1a22d5000a35587e423cdc48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $296,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf35e…18b7backed Yes | 1c | 20,278$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 10,836$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.19 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb6…9983backed Yes | 3c | 7,753$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 0c | 7,466$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…9261backed Yes | 4c | 6,782$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +651.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 6,293$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 5,904$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 5c | 5,707$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.35 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…ec71backed Yes | 0c | 5,317$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 9c | 5,066$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked Yes | 2c | 5,042$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…0317backed Yes | 2c | 4,051$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 1c | 3,403$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 10c | 2,760$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.31 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,521$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc68…e5e2backed Yes | 5c | 2,408$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…dc5ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,191$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.17 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 11c | 2,184$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.73 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 17c | 2,126$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.47 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 5c | 2,120$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…31c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,043$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2eeabacked Yes | 19c | 2,033$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,007$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 13c | 1,797$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.28 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…3df5backed Yes | 4c | 1,715$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…b9a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 21c | 1,673$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.97 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 71c | 1,628$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.23 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 1c | 1,610$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,432$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.41 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…0778backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,345$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 24c | 1,294$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…0850backed Yes | 5c | 1,267$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d67…4d3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,221$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ae…e881backed Yes | 12c | 1,186$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 2c | 1,158$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,131$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 1,112$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.52 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,110$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.37 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…b320backed Yes | 3c | 1,099$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 16c | 1,052$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 5c | 1,034$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,005$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…3b0cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 80c | 976.04$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed Yes | 1c | 973.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 948.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…cb20backed Yes | 15c | 947.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 939.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes | 33c | 923.95$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.37 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 916.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 9c | 863.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 23c | 855.58$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4763backed Yes | 26c | 844.06$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…ee4abacked Yes | 29c | 830.72$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…20d4backed Yes | 30c | 823.49$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 816.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 23c | 811.85$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +267.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 22c | 789.72$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…1ac1backed Yes | 20c | 782.83$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…9cd0backed Yes | 28c | 748.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes | 27c | 746.8$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +270.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 740.21$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 10c | 732.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 74c | 730.64$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 26c | 725.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 6c | 720.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…e7e1backed Yes | 8c | 700.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 687.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…f523backed Yes | 4c | 675.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 663.81$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 3c | 630.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 629.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 16c | 626.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…c6bcbacked Yes | 22c | 605.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…97fabacked Yes | 7c | 603.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 4c | 586$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 12c | 568.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…5beabacked Yes | 6c | 551.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 19c | 538.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 21c | 500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 16c | 498$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1404…ed9abacked Yes | 23c | 495.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 76c | 473.62$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 25c | 466.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…fcadbacked Yes | 29c | 452.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 20c | 447.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed Yes | 10c | 443.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 18c | 420.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 5c | 415$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…9f2ebacked No | 74c | 413.54$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…4274backed Yes | 23c | 413.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 402.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.