Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153bd0e4808dd36462e5ab90cac1d5804e9ef5ecca66bdb6e9dde1227816c4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e5…97fabacked Yes | 0c | 32,190$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 0c | 26,659$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…7d0cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,751$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 0c | 11,666$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8e…5ff9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 9,942$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes | 1c | 9,851$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 10cpaid | +485.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,166$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 1c | 7,798$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked Yes | 0c | 7,008$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 5c | 6,103$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.29 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 2c | 5,495$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 4c | 5,046$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 11c | 3,757$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.78 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…e006backed Yes | 0c | 3,428$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 9c | 2,939$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.49 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked Yes | 0c | 2,446$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 17c | 2,346$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 2,240$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,051$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 2,011$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,895$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 2c | 1,877$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d67…4d3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,877$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4dcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,250$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 24c | 1,127$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,097$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 9c | 1,051$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 1,037$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.04 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 71c | 1,015$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…b209backed Yes | 3c | 951.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…3d76backed Yes | 5c | 940$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…89c0backed Yes | 29c | 934.98$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 32c | 873.45$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 866$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 27c | 863.62$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 2c | 855.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 815.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…94e3backed Yes | 3c | 773.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 6c | 761.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e99…a10cbacked Yes | 4c | 744.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 739.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 717.7$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 2c | 712.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…0d26backed Yes | 2c | 650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 17c | 626.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…789dbacked Yes | 26c | 612.22$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cd…a560backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 16c | 583.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…3bf1backed Yes | 17c | 578.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…fc39backed Yes | 15c | 568.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 23c | 557.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…9b74backed Yes | 23c | 521.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 508.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 4c | 477$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…3d85backed Yes | 12c | 474$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 455.67$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed No | 70c | 417.32$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed Yes | 5c | 416.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 5c | 405.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 401.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 78c | 399.99$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 26c | 394.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…1e4dbacked No | 72c | 390$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…d1ccbacked Yes | 28c | 390$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 28c | 387.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed Yes | 4c | 374.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 368$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…2d01backed Yes | 29c | 357.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 15c | 344.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 4c | 330$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…9365backed Yes | 5c | 323.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3d…1606backed Yes | 16c | 308.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…20d4backed Yes | 33c | 305.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8622…cdc9backed Yes | 9c | 300.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +315.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 292.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 73c | 274.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…d54cbacked Yes | 15c | 270.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 27c | 269.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7713backed Yes | 32c | 268.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…c068backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 15c | 255.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…264cbacked Yes | 15c | 241.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 4c | 239.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 8c | 226.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…b048backed Yes | 16c | 220.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 220.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked Yes | 34c | 211.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…5254backed Yes | 16c | 211.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…422cbacked Yes | 29c | 200.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c7…d648backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.