Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258378692f92bf9065adda4ea52b05fa4fdb3e145971404dfad5d31013646917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 72c | 4,693$3,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.53 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 12c | 1,066$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.16 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 49c | 645.5$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.16 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 57c | 629.24$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.48 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 39c | 487.05$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.87 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 14c | 456.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 60c | 450.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 14c | 426$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 65c | 358.46$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 292.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked No | 59c | 265.66$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 49c | 262.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 26c | 249.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 63c | 219.74$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…0826backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 52c | 171.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 45c | 171$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 58c | 162.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 23c | 152.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 35c | 151.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed No | 77c | 149.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7b8fbacked No | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 132.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…318bbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 50c | 98.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 44c | 97.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 64.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 45c | 61.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 41c | 53.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed No | 64c | 46.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 47c | 43.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 51c | 39.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 50c | 36.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 46c | 36.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 28.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.