Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504bf08f537a5aeca13f0e9aa6523b636069297962a58bd0b4ce5f5b304d9d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 68c | 3,624$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 33c | 1,506$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.99 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 58c | 1,378$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed Yes | 62c | 1,243$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 69c | 925.51$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.29 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 32c | 512.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 76c | 496.21$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 35c | 474.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 44c | 467.36$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 32c | 343.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed No | 22c | 310$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2a73backed Yes | 72c | 302.22$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 29c | 299$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.27 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 54c | 270$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 262.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 40c | 261.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed No | 20c | 228.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 37c | 213.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 29c | 210.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 28c | 186.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…d153backed Yes | 37c | 181.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 32c | 160.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 42c | 159.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…89c0backed Yes | 67c | 157.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…a0ebbacked Yes | 71c | 151.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…120ebacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 29c | 128.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 38c | 113.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 106.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 78c | 102.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 19c | 99.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked No | 63c | 62.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…99d0backed No | 63c | 61.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 27c | 59.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 28c | 59.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…f96ebacked Yes | 67c | 58.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…983fbacked No | 63c | 56.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1e…946ebacked Yes | 69c | 50.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 73c | 46.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 44.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 70c | 43.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 28c | 42.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 32.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…5366backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 72c | 28.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 26.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed Yes | 69c | 20.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…f165backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.