Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x747cc4d9d26839068138c164c763afe0d126b8a5264c848f12ae2df53c6d7921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 59c | 5,211$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.56 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 39c | 4,281$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.45 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 45c | 959.77$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.3 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed No | 40c | 926.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 43c | 664.68$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.55 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 60c | 563.7$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 43c | 541.26$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.16 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 50c | 404$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 399.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.98 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 52c | 376$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2a73backed Yes | 67c | 308$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 52c | 307$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 302.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…107abacked No | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 35c | 293.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 285$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 282.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 52c | 258.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked Yes | 39c | 236.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 41c | 210.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 45c | 196.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 176.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 46c | 151.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 51c | 149.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 44c | 139$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…89a0backed Yes | 33c | 118.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 72c | 108.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 54c | 105.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…4378backed Yes | 63c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 63c | 94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed Yes | 55c | 90.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked No | 74c | 79.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 69.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 68.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 53.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…ce17backed Yes | 63c | 41.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 63c | 38.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 48c | 38.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 74c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 42c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 21.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of February?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.