Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53875de638ab43744e333dc60aefb09933fef25da0c2745eb310a85056c273e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,605$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 29c | 1,297$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.26 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 80c | 850.16$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.27 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 23c | 649.65$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 40c | 610$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 78c | 386.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 57c | 361.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 66c | 330$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 328.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 66c | 259.95$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 12c | 249.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 79c | 221.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 78c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 195$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 177.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 171$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 142.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 27c | 127.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 76c | 107.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 83.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 28c | 77.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes | 32c | 59.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 27c | 45.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 57c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 34c | 34.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…f295backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 70c | 26.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 23.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.