Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417ca44057925c6447e297c5e6020cb275906b14a4fd0d827f8553d61bf82315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 70c | 10,114$7,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.84 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 31c | 5,900$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 58c | 1,565$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.24 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 1,394$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.31 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…49acbacked Yes | 36c | 1,282$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 26c | 932.24$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.62 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…f70fbacked Yes | 27c | 743$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 17c | 730.73$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked No | 66c | 706.46$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.91 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 59c | 648.01$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.7 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed Yes | 44c | 580.48$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 558.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 43c | 520.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 79c | 495.16$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 70c | 383.82$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 362.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 324.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 39c | 310$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 40c | 210$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…5e66backed Yes | 34c | 201$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…b529backed Yes | 34c | 176.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 60c | 167.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…ee29backed No | 63c | 162$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 42c | 153$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…7ca1backed Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…f8c7backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…f758backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…8dc5backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 67c | 145.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 56c | 145$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…0703backed Yes | 33c | 144.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 58c | 144.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 59c | 135$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9672backed Yes | 40c | 131.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…d37ebacked No | 57c | 128.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 42c | 126.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 116.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked No | 70c | 114.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 37c | 100.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 39c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 96.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 94.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 87.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…0c1dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 72c | 60.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 43c | 58.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 30c | 54.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a02…8b73backed Yes | 39c | 51.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 53c | 51.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…4c9ebacked Yes | 31c | 49.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4800…57eebacked Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 38c | 45.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…1981backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed Yes | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed Yes | 43c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…368cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…dac5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of February?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.