Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe809d6e0afff1e1ea0dcfc6ce80a469ba5d6e9e366be22f59ad7e7ac76890c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,169 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb580…7448backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 64c | 6,867$4,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 15c | 4,961$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,220.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 46c | 4,188$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.9 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,509$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.89 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 76c | 3,381$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked No | 47c | 3,072$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 1c | 2,975$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 2,436$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.13 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 13c | 2,093$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 47c | 2,000$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 59c | 1,861$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.87 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 44c | 1,856$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.44 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 31c | 1,851$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.33 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 29c | 1,731$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.96 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 67c | 1,531$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 40c | 1,288$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.28 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 58c | 1,236$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.73 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 61c | 1,082$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 942.57$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 884.79$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.59 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…c021backed Yes | 65c | 869.95$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed Yes | 52c | 837.46$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 76c | 760.68$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 54c | 749.14$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.07 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 29c | 723.16$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d93…4f26backed Yes | 56c | 717.1$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 79c | 702.67$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd6…94e6backed Yes | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 683.11$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 649.18$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…e12dbacked Yes | 76c | 638.83$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 15c | 600$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed Yes | 17c | 599.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +428.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 67c | 599.99$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.4 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…2a2abacked Yes | 68c | 588.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 61c | 549.02$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed No | 8c | 531.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 53c | 512.32$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed Yes | 52c | 499.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 15c | 499.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 39c | 499.95$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01be…3855backed Yes | 9c | 496.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,043.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked Yes | 9c | 450$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +542.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…0aaebacked Yes | 17c | 450$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 54c | 448.05$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 25c | 426.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.85 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 48c | 424.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 46c | 422.63$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 14c | 407.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…e037backed Yes | 58c | 401.36$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…782fbacked No | 46c | 399.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…2c67backed Yes | 52c | 398.2$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 56c | 384.89$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.41 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…4e45backed No | 79c | 383.74$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 365.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.84 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 55c | 365$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 55c | 363.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…e5b5backed No | 48c | 350.43$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…12ecbacked Yes | 15c | 306.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 74c | 303.25$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 44c | 299.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 56c | 299.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 46c | 299.97$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…c349backed No | 41c | 293.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 293.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.76 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed Yes | 73c | 272.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 51c | 255$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 43c | 247.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 56c | 245$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…a14cbacked Yes | 56c | 244.8$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…3f63backed No | 7c | 230.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…fc7cbacked No | 78c | 229.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…7b32backed No | 44c | 221.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 55c | 220.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 213.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…d72dbacked Yes | 57c | 209.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes | 70c | 209$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 72c | 208$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 47c | 204.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…5fdabacked No | 45c | 203.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed Yes | 15c | 201.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611b…9b3dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 70c | 196.09$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 193.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 22c | 190.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…411dbacked Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 77c | 189.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…a45cbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…5c94backed Yes | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…103abacked Yes | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Yes | 55c | 187.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…c63cbacked Yes | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…5dacbacked Yes | 56c | 184.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.