Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026944f9af9d8aa9150e1eb7777130beae4cd0fbeb2e5c4caa44929ae3d6cc69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,987 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaf6…23cfbacked Yes | 2c | 7,259$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 6,507$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 10c | 5,652$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.31 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,353$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed Yes | 11c | 1,016$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 804.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…33a5backed Yes | 2c | 777.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…fdf8backed Yes | 2c | 740.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…5945backed Yes | 13c | 699.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 11c | 689.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed Yes | 9c | 596.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…2735backed Yes | 14c | 553.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 10c | 527.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 502.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 5c | 473.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 11c | 473.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 415.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 14c | 366.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…9c9bbacked Yes | 4c | 356.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 12c | 282.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 6c | 241.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…3390backed Yes | 21c | 238.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 49c | 234.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 6c | 208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 196.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 191.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…86f7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…5dacbacked Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…d8cfbacked Yes | 15c | 101.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa68a…3ab8backed Yes | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.