Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7c8142b7c64cb1b421804741e7842aac85c92c5859cf66da5356949ddd95c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,507 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 42c | 2,583$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.04 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,724$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,403$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 46c | 1,242$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 62c | 1,197$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 1,091$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.13 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 29c | 999.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 874.29$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 52c | 832.36$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.03 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 26c | 798.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.13 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 32c | 718.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 630.1$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 26c | 616.51$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 549.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…2735backed Yes | 39c | 517.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…1996backed Yes | 79c | 509.14$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd6…94e6backed Yes | 30c | 499.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 52c | 493.49$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.81 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 473.57$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 12c | 399.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 365.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 351.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 31c | 299.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked No | 68c | 266.52$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 75c | 265.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed Yes | 23c | 260$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 31c | 238$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 27c | 237.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 71c | 228.88$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 70c | 209.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 20c | 208$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 47c | 202.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 19c | 199.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…5dacbacked Yes | 34c | 185.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed No | 67c | 182.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…9db0backed Yes | 9c | 182$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…0aaebacked No | 22c | 181.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 19c | 177.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 152.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +542.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed No | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +428.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f00…c1f5backed Yes | 34c | 146.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00a…da1bbacked No | 71c | 140.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 12c | 137.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 133.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 68c | 131.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…0436backed Yes | 13c | 131.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…234abacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ce…5ab3backed Yes | 12c | 118.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…46cbbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked Yes | 23c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 29c | 109.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…0aedbacked Yes | 21c | 108$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…086cbacked Yes | 14c | 104.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 14c | 102.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…1807backed Yes | 31c | 100.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…f53abacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…8f13backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…d3aebacked Yes | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…702fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…12ecbacked No | 27c | 91.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…7c52backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…9da7backed Yes | 71c | 88.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 87.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…3799backed Yes | 18c | 87.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 25c | 87.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 82.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 82.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…862abacked Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 58c | 78.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked Yes | 34c | 73.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…e5b5backed Yes | 37c | 63.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…e2d5backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…3528backed Yes | 31c | 57.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 23c | 57.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb81…585dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…a4d3backed Yes | 32c | 55.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 54.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 42c | 53.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 52.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…1962backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…8321backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.