Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635505d2b1dca3e29e8e16583d03ab712f82bc84f52e65b5fec95d05ee12df1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97d0…0b3fbacked Yes | 56c | 4,800$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…bc0abacked No | 44c | 4,800$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8915…0e2dbacked No | 61c | 2,715$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…3ff5backed Yes | 39c | 2,715$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 2,702$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked No | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 2,401$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 1,655$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 1c | 1,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 982.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 64c | 885$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.47 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 26c | 761.59$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 77c | 644.88$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…afe8backed Yes | 66c | 635.62$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 588.23$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 66c | 289.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 14c | 253.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 46c | 240.42$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 60c | 198.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 195.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 55c | 180.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 171.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 167.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 59c | 135$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 109.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…57f5backed Yes | 68c | 102.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 97.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 61c | 83.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 35c | 73.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 46c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 55.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 75c | 53.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 57c | 52.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 52c | 49.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 57c | 46.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 43.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 28c | 43.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 48c | 41.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 64c | 41.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 55c | 36.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 35.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 35.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1e…66f1backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…8002backed Yes | 41c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked Yes | 76c | 29.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 44c | 27.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 69c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked No | 49c | 21.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 58c | 19.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -8°C or below on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.