Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea8d85a782ebf2dc3ee53a1b2fc9e5c25ff5cb8c2558d07639fc3a6fd8f5d34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,917$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 474.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 313.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 38c | 266.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 32c | 260.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 77c | 240.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 71c | 169.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 148.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 134.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 110.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 38c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 68c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 34c | 88.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 30c | 66.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 79c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 41c | 61.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 37c | 55.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 55.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 37c | 54.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 53.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 49.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 62c | 42.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 40c | 40.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 64c | 36.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 63c | 31.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 65c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…cca6backed No | 66c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…4406backed No | 76c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 69c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -8°C or below on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.