Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf0cfb3d367aecf9df47b54d98140e1da078841e53666c6c66f192bafb555e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 29c | 21,014$6,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,025.36 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…6f61backed Yes | 75c | 3,548$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 6c | 3,065$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 53c | 2,501$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…d213backed No | 13c | 1,800$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 6c | 1,743$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 49c | 1,677$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…d945backed Yes | 61c | 1,600$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 40c | 1,445$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.72 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,396$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 48c | 1,371$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 26c | 1,300$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…956abacked No | 42c | 1,190$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 52c | 1,182$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 41c | 1,100$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.98 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 74c | 1,059$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 35c | 1,005$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.85 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…e5b5backed No | 8c | 902.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 868.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 28c | 863.23$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.53 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 4c | 838.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 42c | 801.07$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.47 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 27c | 800$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 48c | 691$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 48c | 676$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…8d67backed Yes | 78c | 638.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 628.95$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 32c | 624.7$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…476bbacked Yes | 53c | 615.28$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed Yes | 53c | 614.61$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 38c | 599.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 595.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 59c | 508.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…7cc7backed Yes | 55c | 504$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 48c | 484$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes | 52c | 478$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 476.07$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…73fdbacked Yes | 52c | 449.94$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 48c | 446.48$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.69 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 53c | 435$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 52c | 416$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 42c | 413.71$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…592bbacked Yes | 58c | 402.21$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 75c | 400.4$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 53c | 393.42$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…a15ebacked Yes | 52c | 386.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 382.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 58c | 374.02$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.94 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 48c | 371$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 48c | 360$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 48c | 353$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 37c | 352.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 52c | 347$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 48c | 342$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 48c | 338$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…d656backed Yes | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 52c | 298.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 297.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Yes | 74c | 294.59$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 52c | 274$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb13…8c5dbacked Yes | 58c | 273.24$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 52c | 271$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 39c | 270.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 70c | 262.31$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…fadcbacked Yes | 59c | 255.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 5c | 255$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 27c | 252.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 52c | 238$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed Yes | 54c | 224$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 5c | 222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…f36fbacked Yes | 70c | 218.22$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…8e18backed Yes | 50c | 215.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 47c | 209.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…bf3dbacked No | 8c | 208.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…c832backed Yes | 63c | 207.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 55c | 204.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 52c | 202$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked No | 50c | 200.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…ab39backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…7d2fbacked Yes | 71c | 199.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…c63cbacked Yes | 50c | 198.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…9c6dbacked No | 35c | 198.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…e1dcbacked Yes | 51c | 198.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 57c | 197.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…411dbacked Yes | 51c | 196.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…adbebacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…103abacked Yes | 58c | 194.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed Yes | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…f9aebacked Yes | 53c | 189.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…a676backed Yes | 59c | 182.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…67d3backed Yes | 55c | 182.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 51c | 179.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.