Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f3edd0d89e8f0cebc0da4c9173fa39f768c69523c9f2a9086b7962bb19d896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee32…485fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,580$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 4c | 3,189$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,477$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 1,405$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 26c | 1,284$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 39c | 1,132$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,014$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 63c | 995$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 27c | 979.01$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 61c | 976$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 31c | 939$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 25c | 929$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 69c | 925$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 69c | 839$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 39c | 766$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 27c | 659$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 73c | 638$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 69c | 633$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 13c | 616$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 27c | 600.37$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 74c | 579$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 61c | 569$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 14c | 561.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 31c | 536$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 12c | 523$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 73c | 502$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 69c | 421$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 74c | 383$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 69c | 379$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 61c | 333$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 28c | 327.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 33c | 294.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 293.9$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 69c | 283$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 37c | 278.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed Yes | 38c | 259.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 61c | 259$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 39c | 243$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 69c | 217$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 73c | 215.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 39c | 210$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 39c | 205$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 168.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 69c | 157$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 139.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 39c | 132$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 127.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 110.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…1a42backed Yes | 38c | 105.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 16c | 83.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…f7b2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 30c | 77.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 75.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Yes | 18c | 73.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f681backed Yes | 36c | 63.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 62.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 73c | 61.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 33c | 52.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…e2d5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…4deabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…7bacbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 30c | 47.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 45.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 36c | 41.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…beafbacked No | 78c | 38.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…abdabacked Yes | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 34.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…86c1backed Yes | 44c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…12b1backed No | 78c | 32.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed No | 70c | 32.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6881…4464backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…266cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…7c79backed Yes | 34c | 29.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…89babacked No | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…5124backed Yes | 35c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…5427backed No | 77c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6a…db02backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…dbb0backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.