AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x030e6cf44e9d72846afc1cfd17069ec944d1c322a0fd3c0d40d93f8bcfba125c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,122$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 23c | 807$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 33c | 696$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 77c | 632$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 19c | 449.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 67c | 438$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 78c | 321.45$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 20c | 302.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +424.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 67c | 258$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 237.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…1ac1backed Yes | 37c | 218.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…c3a4backed No | 63c | 218.18$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed No | 77c | 175$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 173.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 136.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 36c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…cea3backed Yes | 41c | 97.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…f934backed Yes | 41c | 96.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 30c | 80.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 62c | 64.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 68c | 50.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 39.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 64c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 59c | 25.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857e…9119backed No | 59c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…1c9cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?this page
- Will ChatGPT be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?Yes won
- Will Google be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Paramount+ be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will Threads be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
- Will UpScrolled be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.