Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2c8fd8ef77fbf037e184ff482e8422587682d55fe4a9c9c478ec973d1c98ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 5c | 47,435$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.03 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 1c | 11,569$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 3c | 6,588$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 2c | 2,592$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,055$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,970$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 800.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 653.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 9c | 591.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 489.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 389.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 16c | 282$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 31c | 277.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…7d31backed Yes | 20c | 275$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 6c | 271.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 237.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 200.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 16c | 185.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 17c | 169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 80c | 165$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked Yes | 14c | 155$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Yes | 16c | 149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 8c | 146.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 120.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…d402backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…28f9backed Yes | 22c | 67.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
- Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Ruwa Romman win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.