Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54779506de80194c043252b74623c27ce2270aca09c3eb90fa812144064f51b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 18,350$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.34 | 122 | 23.8%29 W · 93 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 1c | 12,248$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,820$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 196 | 4.6%9 W · 187 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,183$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 17c | 1,186$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 19c | 792$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 18c | 773$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 771.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 17c | 688$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f5c9backed Yes | 9c | 678.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed Yes | 15c | 573$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 16c | 573$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 511.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 17c | 502$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 4c | 483$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 17c | 481$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 16c | 480$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 19c | 465$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb742…4263backed Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 361.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 80 | 22.5%18 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 16c | 322$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 317.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 360 | 33.3%120 W · 240 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 19c | 281$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 18c | 267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…7763backed Yes | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 215.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 168 | 20.8%35 W · 133 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…08bebacked Yes | 6c | 186.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 19c | 162$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 17c | 136$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 209 | 41.6%87 W · 122 L | -11.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 17.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 93 | 10.8%10 W · 83 L | -20.4wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
- Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Ruwa Romman win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.