College Football · resolved market
Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a0338ab1af1b0fd81175876cca306e1fa31345881bb862e14e340dd54e0d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27db…a440backed Yes | 0c | 27,824$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 79c | 25,000$19,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes | 21c | 23,100$4,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850.99 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 0c | 5,232$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,778$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 21c | 1,876$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.01 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 17c | 315$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 11c | 305$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 17c | 289$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 17c | 254$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 10c | 208$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 10c | 188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 18c | 185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 17c | 182$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 18c | 177$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 9c | 177$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 18c | 167$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 18c | 162$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113e…aea7backed Yes | 26c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 17c | 131$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 17c | 125$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 18c | 124$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 17c | 107$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…fb70backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 17c | 91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 19c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 79c | 19.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?this page
- Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Duke make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Florida State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Florida make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Georgia Tech make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Iowa make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Kansas State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Kansas make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Miami Florida make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Michigan make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Minnesota make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Missouri make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Nebraska make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will North Carolina make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will South Carolina make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will TCU make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Tennessee make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Texas A&M make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Texas Tech make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will USC make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Utah make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Virginia Tech make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Washington make the College Football Playoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.