TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes20c1,088$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No76c1,082$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.352035%7 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked No59c1,034$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+341.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf7f…8a2dbacked No18c1,032$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+175%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes41c785$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c771.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54320%0 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No80c715$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+319.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No75c649.74$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.184845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No66c646$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.991283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+63.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes27c644$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed No73c644$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes15c643$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes29c640.07$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-66.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes42c620.01$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.411010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-80.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes16c609$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c554.12$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes5c528.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.623315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes15c498$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed Yes15c495$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b0…6452backed Yes7c492.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No72c482$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c461.61$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.231644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed No59c444$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed Yes41c444$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e6…2f95backed No30c430.82$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.82580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+110.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes39c416.72$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4812425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes16c415$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes16c413$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes16c411$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No46c386.92$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes5c383.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes40c370.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.651414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes15c370.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.791926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked No49c350$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.254438.6%17 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4eb…86b9backed No51c310$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa446…ed2bbacked Yes49c310$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3473…8c3dbacked Yes16c303.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+122.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43e6…315ebacked Yes43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes16c293$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes5c290.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.01812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No68c277.17$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes28c271$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes16c251$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.16650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes41c249$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+138.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05f4…9073backed Yes18c242.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Yes28c242$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No72c242$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes16c232$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e6…14bdbacked No57c230$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No78c225$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+180.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No78c212$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed Yes28c211$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8885…5792backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No77c196.12$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…5267backed Yes30c188.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.681428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes22c187$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes22c174$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+99.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c170.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.938013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc25…f8dcbacked Yes63c153.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes17c150.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.25714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed No69c150$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+275.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x195a…9442backed Yes65c149.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c145.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No72c143.47$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23360.6%20 W · 13 L+8.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+83.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes16c123$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes12c123$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.64425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+106%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes31c119.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No76c105$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed Yes16c101$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0989…1b82backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.941060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes33c94.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.17988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+68.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba8d…5fddbacked Yes68c89.79$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.15771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes13c77.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.073243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x434c…4c7dbacked Yes29c75.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes22c73.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.135225%13 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69dd…5784backed No57c70$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes41c69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes76c67.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.886771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes29c65.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.02425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes22c63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes42c62.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d38…d383backed No73c60.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.49520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7227…3681backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2010…18febacked Yes68c59.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.261361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+80.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9352…71efbacked Yes20c56.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.37425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c50.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.684839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f02…3256backed Yes30c50.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No71c45.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2825…7749backed Yes39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No30c43.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+129.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes37c32.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No71c28.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes56c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick45cpaid-78.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes59c25.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes66c18.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No55c18.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.077435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cea…fb1abacked Yes66c16.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.