Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be three or four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a3b0aeb1043b701cd74342626b507468da35c944909517b435a152c1c0ef1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,092$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 73c | 984$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 906.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 900$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 27c | 811$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 15c | 783$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 15c | 692$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked No | 74c | 637.49$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.27 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…5267backed Yes | 19c | 599.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes | 15c | 588$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 15c | 382$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 15c | 331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 15c | 267$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 71c | 203.06$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 27c | 173$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed Yes | 16c | 124.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 109.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 22c | 92.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…3256backed Yes | 23c | 58.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 46.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be three or four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be nine or ten announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be one or two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.