Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul walk out to Paper Planes by M.I.A.?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71d9c5a57e2e17ca24040586efed5357697eb64fe4786ec9ee408ee8cff38d16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 50c | 886$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked Yes | 50c | 862$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed No | 50c | 744$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked Yes | 50c | 688$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 50c | 634$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 50c | 519$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 50c | 483$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked No | 50c | 465$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked No | 50c | 424$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 50c | 402$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 50c | 266$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed Yes | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 50c | 183$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed Yes | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 50c | 168$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked Yes | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed Yes | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed Yes | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul walk out to Paper Planes by M.I.A.?this page
- Will Jake Paul walk out to 23 by Jake Paul?No won
- Will Jake Paul walk out to Got It On Me by Pop Smoke?No won
- Will Jake Paul walk out to In the Air Tonight by Phil Collins?No won
- Will Jake Paul walk out to Real American by Rick Derringer?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul walk out to Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree by Brenda Lee?No won
- Will Jake Paul walk out to Something Different by Why Don’t We?No won
- Will Jake Paul walk out to Till I Die by Machine Gun Kelly?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.