World Politics · resolved market
Canada recession before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01677ae80095732d69ef484b859460b69d21714dd370b9e4f377469c35fac05d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8982…af89backed No | 1c | 7,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked No | 5c | 4,297$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 55c | 3,991$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 1c | 3,851$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 48c | 3,597$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdb…6bfebacked No | 1c | 3,448$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 71c | 3,150$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.32 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 1,889$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 37c | 1,646$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 49c | 1,552$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.59 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 7c | 1,533$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 1,505$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 43c | 1,479$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 39c | 1,049$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked Yes | 54c | 1,045$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 41c | 1,043$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 42c | 1,037$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 41c | 981$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd294…4786backed No | 52c | 966.81$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 38c | 965$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 63c | 963$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…1d38backed Yes | 39c | 953.84$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 41c | 933$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 61c | 807$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +319.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 61c | 804$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No | 73c | 790$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes | 28c | 727$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 59c | 726$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 70c | 721$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…3846backed Yes | 42c | 714.85$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 61c | 708$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 57c | 707$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 59c | 703.88$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.81 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 61c | 687$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 63c | 683$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 59c | 654$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 41c | 642$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2159backed Yes | 37c | 639.46$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 39c | 632$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed Yes | 35c | 613$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 65c | 613$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 17c | 608$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 38c | 601$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 62c | 598$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 38c | 597$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 59c | 587$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0829backed No | 52c | 577$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked Yes | 39c | 559$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 58c | 547$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 39c | 544$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed No | 57c | 538$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 26c | 536.15$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 2c | 532.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 58c | 526$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 42c | 526$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 64c | 524$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 59c | 511$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 43c | 510.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…6a2dbacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 5c | 495.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 490.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 39c | 487.55$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed No | 58c | 469$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 59c | 468$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed No | 59c | 467$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 43c | 456$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 42c | 437$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 70c | 422$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 41c | 417$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +109%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 59c | 410$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 60c | 409.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…d5bfbacked No | 54c | 399.95$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 395.89$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.84 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 30c | 386$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 42c | 386$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 58c | 386$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 4c | 385.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 72c | 382$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…13cebacked Yes | 42c | 381.38$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 41c | 379$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 59c | 374$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 43c | 371$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 57c | 371$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes | 40c | 357.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 72c | 345$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…79a6backed No | 65c | 339.77$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 30c | 335$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 41c | 333$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 58c | 320$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 318.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 305.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 59c | 305$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 59c | 303$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.