Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a956154c48ad7859bf176e5dacf05725d2278f7cbbf7c275944d6a8812df9e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 1,120$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfebe…2984backed No | 62c | 975.47$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 35c | 746.08$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.71 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 602.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked No | 47c | 527.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 76c | 448$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 62c | 396$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7b…09d8backed No | 54c | 356.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 63c | 342$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 37c | 342$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 25c | 332$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 41c | 332$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 63c | 317$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…632fbacked Yes | 10c | 307.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 53c | 303$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 52c | 292$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 66c | 288$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 48c | 273$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 37c | 268$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 49c | 264$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 43c | 242$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 54c | 236.61$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 61c | 221$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 220.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 37c | 213$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 65c | 208$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 205.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 35c | 205$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 54c | 203.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 32c | 202$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked Yes | 64c | 196$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 47c | 195$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 70c | 182.44$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 48c | 172$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed No | 35c | 171$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 56c | 166.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 53c | 166$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 47c | 166$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 24c | 153$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 75c | 151$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 38c | 146$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 57c | 133$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 62c | 132$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 52c | 126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked No | 48c | 119$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 63c | 118$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 43c | 115.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed No | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 62c | 101$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No | 51c | 96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 51c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed No | 56c | 89.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 39c | 89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 60c | 73.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked No | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 62.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 60.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 36c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 52c | 46.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed No | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 35.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 32.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 70c | 31.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?this page
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in December?No won
- Will NYC have more than 7 inches of precipitation in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.