TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes48c8,128$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.74922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No77c3,793$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes43c2,155$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.26616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No63c1,171$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed Yes20c1,014$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+406.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c2…6d37backed Yes35c851.74$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No6c776.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.85530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No34c738.17$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No78c734.39$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No80c620$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4961010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ff…2272backed Yes33c599.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes23c523$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5c…5b0fbacked Yes60c520.11$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No80c428.6$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.88520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No77c417$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes43c415.16$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+111.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No49c336.29$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No31c315.1$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ee8…638abacked Yes19c302.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+424.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes18c300$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+128.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No18c295.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa262…c93abacked Yes18c285.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+298.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc46a…c10dbacked Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes18c249.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked Yes45c239.79$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c3…eab3backed No68c236.63$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+325%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748f…59d0backed Yes51c229.44$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…e564backed No63c220$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83d…3324backed Yes50c213$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes17c204$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+227.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9fd…6a7cbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ec…7631backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked No69c184$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a9…6670backed Yes19c183.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed Yes31c178$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d31…5a0abacked Yes58c171.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No80c170$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc40a…6531backed No63c158.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes24c152$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed No52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6586…c69cbacked Yes27c150$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+153.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6205…d7b8backed Yes41c139.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.05520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993e…8ee9backed Yes18c138.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+254.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb8…961abacked No44c129.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No68c127$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes32c125$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed No76c121$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No69c113.31$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.721136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes19c101.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+433.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…578dbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+127%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf501…fa89backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ac…7165backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3091…013cbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+104.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x763b…4777backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c99.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe43…af79backed Yes24c96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+339.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+103.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168e…aa56backed No52c93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No77c93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes22c89.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.43425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No44c88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked No61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed No76c80$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No52c68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x053d…18eabacked Yes41c65.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed No79c61.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8ad4backed No76c55$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3b…fc5cbacked Yes45c54.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b1…18ffbacked Yes55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed Yes47c54.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3be…94e4backed Yes70c52.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.86850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+114.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd78…5c5bbacked Yes54c51.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfb…c415backed Yes51c43.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed0…0585backed Yes57c42.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No80c41.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29dc…75dabacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef05…fe53backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes41c27.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa211…657fbacked Yes66c25.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726d…b10dbacked Yes54c25.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No69c24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No77c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No77c19.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.